Frogville´s Weather Service

Updated:  12-Nov-2026 5:11pm 
  Dusk Temperature: 77.5°F   -4.0°F/hr Humidity: 34% Dew Point: 46.9°F Wind: NE  0.0 mph Gust: 0.0 mph Barometer: 29.812 inHg  Steady Rain Today: 0.00 in UV Index: 0.0  None

202
FXUS65 KTWC 122124
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
224 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will be slightly above normal to
around normal today and tomorrow. A series of Pacific weather
systems will move through starting on Friday into next week,
bringing rain chances and cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A pattern shift is on the horizon, with the dry and seasonable
temperatures continuing through today, then a series of low
pressure systems will bring chances of precipitation and cooler
temperatures. There has been just enough lingering moisture for
a few low clouds this afternoon, with clouds dissipating shortly
after sunset.

The first of a few low pressure system begins to impact
Southeast Arizona early Friday morning into Saturday afternoon.
This first system will progressively move from west to east
beginning early Friday morning for the western and central
portions of Pima County, then working into the Tucson Metro,
Santa Cruz, and Pinal Counties mid morning, and then spreading
to Tucson eastward in the afternoon. This system will bring
showers with embedded thunderstorms, with the best chances for
thunderstorms Friday afternoon when the best atmospheric
instability can be tapped into. Rainfall totals continue to be
not very impactful, with the current forecast having 0.01" to
0.30", and locally 0.30" to 0.60" with any embedded
thunderstorms. Outside of rainfall chances, surface southwest
winds will be elevated at 12-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph
Friday afternoon and again on Saturday afternoon, with winds a
tad more westerly.

Once this system passes, there will be shortwave high pressure
allowing for a dry period Sunday and Monday, with slightly
increasing temperatures to slightly below normal. Models are
beginning to agree on the timing of the shortwave high pressure
allowing for the next system to come through.

The second system begins to dig down the West Coast and brings
the next round of precipitation begins late overnight Monday
into late overnight Tuesday, with some lingering showers into
Wednesday morning. The models continue to have different timing
as to when this system weakens as a third system digs down
behind it late next week. Regardless, rainfall totals of
0.01"-0.60" is possible with the highest amounts in the
mountains, in Pinal County and along the International Border.
Snow levels may come down low enough for some flurries at the
top of Mt Graham and White Mountains, but no accumulation is
expected. Temperatures begin to decrease to below normal, with
the coolest day on Wednesday.


This active pattern looks to continue into next weekend with a
third system, with more details being ironed out as we get
closer and models come into more agreement.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 14/00Z.
FEW-SCT cumulus clouds 6k-8k AGL thru 13/03Z. SFC winds SE-ly at
5-10 kts through 13/17Z when winds switch to S/SW-ly at 10-18
kts with gusts up to 30 kts. SCT-BKN clouds 4k-8k AGL with SHRA
with embedded TSRA from the west to east beginning 13/18Z
through the end of the period. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expect southerly/southeasterly winds from Tucson eastward
today, then breezy west to southwest winds Friday and Saturday
as a weather system moves through. Breezy south to southwest
winds return Monday and Tuesday of next week. Minimum RH values
in the valleys will be in the 20-35 percent range today then
increase above 40 percent everywhere as moisture moves in. A
series of Pacific weather systems will impact the area Friday
into early next week with precipitation chances Friday-Saturday
and then again Tuesday-Wednesday of next week. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

JT

Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson

NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion