649 FXUS65 KTWC 111615 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 915 AM MST Sat Jul 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - An active monsoon day is likely today across southeastern Arizona. Thunderstorms should initially develop this afternoon over high terrain and eastern areas closer to the New Mexico border, with chances transitioning westward through the late afternoon and evening hours. Strong to severe wind gusts producing blowing dust will be possible, with thunderstorms also potentially producing flash flooding and hail. - Scattered thunderstorms are possible again on Sunday, bringing the potential for severe wind gusts, blowing dust, and flash flooding. - Thunderstorm chances will continue daily through the upcoming week with day to day variability in location and severity. High temperatures are forecast to sit around to just below normal Monday onwards. && .SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorm activity will increase through the afternoon and evening hours across southeastern Arizona. Severe wind gusts, blowing dust, hail, and flash flooding will be possible with any thunderstorm today. Thunderstorm chances will continue through the upcoming week across southeastern Arizona with day to day variability in location and severity. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft today will be centered over the Four Corners and Rocky Mountains keeping southeast Arizona under moist easterly flow. GOES total precipitable water ranges from 1.55" in western Pima County to 1.2" along the AZ/NM border. By this afternoon these values will increase another 0.20". At the same time 500 mb flow will be slightly elevated with winds at that level between 20-30 kts. This will lead to 0-6 km wind shear values between 15-30 kts this afternoon and evening across southeast Arizona. The airmass will also be fairly unstable with forecasted HREF/REFS mean SBCAPE around 1000 J/kg. All of these ingredients will lead to an active monsoon day with severe wind gusts, hail, heavy rainfall, and blowing dust all a threat. The SPC and WPC both have southeast Arizona under slight risks for severe weather and excessive rainfall. The current forecast looks on track with storms initially forming east of Tucson early this afternoon over the higher terrain. Isolated activity will also be possible over Santa Cruz County. Storms will move west southwest off the mountains and into the lower deserts creating a severe wind gust and blowing dust threat throughout the afternoon and early evening east of Tucson. A blowing dust advisory is in effect from 3 PM through 9 PM. By late afternoon/early evening CAMs show convection mainly outflow driven with storms over eastern Pima County and southeast Pinal County. However there are a couple HREF members that show convection over the Tucson area by mid-afternoon, so still some uncertainty in the exact timing for Tucson storms. Severe wind gusts and blowing dust will also be a threat for these areas with another blowing dust advisory in effect from 4 PM to 11 PM. Also, with the wind shear in place storms with stronger and possibly rotating updrafts will be capable of hail. The heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat will cover most of southeast Arizona, but the best chances for heavy rainfall will be over Santa Cruz County and southwest Cochise County. Storms in these areas will be capable of 1"-2" an hour and some of these areas have already received rainfall over the past few days. For longer term details please see the previous discussion. && .AVIATION...Valid through 12/12Z. FEW-SCT ceilings above 15k-25k ft to start the forecast period. Increasing coverage of thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon and evening across much of southeastern Arizona. Any thunderstorm will bring low visibility along with the threat of severe wind gusts, hail, and blowing dust. Thunderstorm activity more likely near KDUG-KOLS after 11/20Z and near KTUS after 12/00Z. Scattered showers and thunderstorm chances decrease by late evening with isolated activity lingering late west of KTUS- KOLS. Surface winds outside of thunderstorms terrain driven and light this morning, becoming west to northwest 8-13 kts this afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across much of southeastern Arizona today. Any thunderstorm will likely bring strong and erratic wind gusts, a few potentially becoming severe. Winds outside of thunderstorm activity will become mainly west to northwest 10-15 mph this afternoon with gusts up to 22 mph. Moisture will be on the rise through the coming days as an active monsoon pattern will set up. Minimum relative humidity will be lowest in the Gila River Valley today at around 16 percent, but otherwise above 20-30 percent elsewhere with further increases into early next week. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the coming week with day to day variability. && .PREV DISCUSSION.../Issued at 202 AM MST/ A favorable monsoon pattern looks to be setting up across southeastern Arizona as the ridge aloft will become centered over the Four Corners region through the day today. Mean flow with this transition will become easterly, while drawing moisture into southeastern Arizona from the east/southeast as well as from the Gulf of California. Precipitable water values will increase to 1.5-1.75 inches from Tucson west and around 1-1.5 inches eastward through the New Mexico border. Thunderstorms should first form in the early to mid afternoon in eastern areas over terrain and along a low level convergence zone near the New Mexico border, with early convective initiation also possible near Nogales. An increase in coverage and westward transition is expected through the evening, moving into Pinal and eastern Pima in the late afternoon and early evening, then through western Pima through the late evening. The severe parameter space forecast to set up this afternoon will be characterized by a peak of 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear, a combination which should allow for thunderstorm cells to organize and strengthen into a severe wind, hail, flash flooding, and blowing dust threat. Blowing dust will especially be a hazard with organized outflow winds in thunderstorms that move into the eastern Interstate 10 corridor through the San Simon Valley this afternoon as well as further west through I-10 between Tucson and Phoenix and into central and western Pima through this evening. Mean wind around 20 kts will allow thunderstorms to move at a decent pace, however the potential for clustering/training along with the likelihood of heavy rainfall rates will also provide a flash flooding threat. All in all these threats are currently being highlighted by a Blowing Dust Advisory for this afternoon/evening and elevated Slight Risk outlooks from both SPC and WPC. Thunderstorm activity should wane in the east through the evening, lingering longest in western Pima county late in the evening. Favorable easterly flow continues on Sunday with a similar moisture/shear profile to today. It can be a challenge to hone in on thunderstorm chances after what should be an active day, however there looks to be enough support in the upper levels to drive another day of at least scattered thunderstorms again Sunday afternoon/evening. At least an isolated threat of severe wind gusts with blowing dust potential and flash flooding should be in store again on Sunday. Going into next week the upper level high will shift north and east into the central United States, with thunderstorm chances continuing daily in the desert southwest. There will be day to day variability in coverage and severity but an active pattern for southeastern Arizona looks likely through the coming week. This upper level transition will also bring temperatures down a bit with forecast highs dipping to around normal or even below normal from Monday onwards. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Blowing Dust Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ501>506. Blowing Dust Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MST this evening for AZZ507>509. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Edwards DISCUSSION...Edwards/Hardin AVIATION...Edwards FIRE WEATHER...Edwards Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson
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| National |
| High Temp |
| 135°F at Auburn Municipal Ap, CA |
| Low Temp |
| 31°F at Leadville, CO |
| Precipitation |
| 3.65in at Metropolis Municipal Airport, IL |
| AZ |
| High Temp |
| 113°F at Lake Havasu City Az, AZ 113°F at Laughlin Bullhead Intl Ap, AZ |
| Low Temp |
| 46°F at Grand Canyon, AZ |
| Precipitation |
| 0.51in at Safford Municipal Ap, AZ |
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