Frogville´s Weather Service

Updated:  23-Jan-2025 4:55pm 
  Dusk Temperature: 63.8°F   -1.1°F/hr Humidity: 5%  Dew Point: -8.6°F Wind: SSW  0.0 mph Gust: 0.0 mph Barometer: 30.276 inHg   Steady Rain Today: 0.00 in UV Index: 0.0  None

144
FXUS65 KTWC 232122
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
222 PM MST Thu Jan 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Another cold morning for the eastern counties, a cold
weather advisory is in effect. Temperatures will warm up through
Saturday. Breezy easterly winds expected today through midday
tomorrow. A strong storm system moving into the region late this
weekend and early next week will bring colder temperatures, breezy
conditions, and chances for valley rain and mountain snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Breezy northeasterly winds across the region with
areas picking up dust. It has been dry enough for the fine
particles to get picked up in the more dust prone areas, such
along the I-10/I-8 corridor between Tucson and Phoenix. These
winds will shift to the east-southeast in the evening. Another
cold morning expected across the region with the eastern counties
experiencing very cold temperatures. Coupled with the wind and the
clear skies, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued tonight for
potions of Cochise and Graham/Greenlee Counties. Those locations
can experience temperatures as low as 5 to 15 degrees.

Tomorrow, breezy winds will continue in the morning and then
calming down towards the afternoon. Daytime temperatures will warm
up to above normal and the trend will continue through Saturday.

The big question: What about that weather system coming through
this weekend? Well, ensemble models are coming together but with
minor variations of the placement of the low pressure center /
trough. The weather system will start to rear itself later on
Saturday with southwesterly breezes. These winds will continue to
Sunday and being a little stronger than Saturday. Some of the wind
prone areas and ridge tops can be closer to the windy side of
speeds. This will create fire weather concerns due to the already
dry conditions and the increase wind speeds this weekend.

The main bulk of the weather system will be impacting the region
by Monday through Wednesday. Chances for precipitation will be
increasing late Sunday night and staying elevated through the
first half of the week. The low pressure center will stall or just
slow down over the region to give daily chances for valley rain
showers and mountain snow. Some of the ensemble members are eager
beavers to leave the region while the rest of the members just
want to overstay their welcome in Arizona. Anyway, rainfall
amounts are still on the low end and may be enough to wet the
ground, between 0.01 and 0.25 inches in the three day period. Snow
amounts will follow the same 1-3 inches on most of the Sky
Islands and towards the White Mountains. After, Southeast Arizona
will experience cooler temperatures by the middle to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/00Z.
SKC for the first half of the forecast period. By 24/18Z, SCT-BKN
clouds at 18-25k ft AGL moving from the southwest to the northeast.
This afternoon SFC winds N-E 12-17 kts with gusts to 25-30kts and
then becoming S-SE by 24/02Z at similar speeds. By 24/18Z, SFC
winds will slowly come down in speed to 10-12kts through the rest
of the forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with a small warming trend into
the weekend. Minimum relative humidities in the valleys will be
5-10 percent through the remainder of the week. Mountain minimum
humidities in the 7-14 percent range through the week. A weather
system will be moving through possibly as early as Sunday night
but more likely Monday and Tuesday. This will bring gusty winds
Sunday, followed by a chance for valley rain and mountain snow
Monday and Tuesday. There may be brief and localized near
critical fire weather conditions on Saturday and Sunday due to
the stronger wind gusts and the very dry conditions, mainly south
of Tucson towards the International Border. Min RH will then
increase by 10 to 20 percent Sunday into early next week.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MST Friday
for AZZ507>509.

&&

$$

Strongman

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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion