796
FXUS65 KTWC 012110
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
210 PM MST Fri Nov 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Near normal temperatures are expected through
Saturday, then a cold front is expected to cross the state on
Sunday. Rain showers, mountain snow, breezy conditions, and below
normal temperatures are expected with the passage of this front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery has an upper level
southwesterly flow across the region and it will continue through
tomorrow. Southwesterly breezes will pick up tomorrow as the
trough moves into the region.

This weather system will produce breezes, rain showers, mountain
snow, and cooler temperatures. The ensembles are in lock agreement
of the cold front to pass through the region starting early Sunday
morning. Chances for valley rain showers will be at least 70% with
high elevation snow occuring Sunday. Yet, there is uncertainty on
the exact rainfall amounts (and impacting snow amounts for
elevations above 6,500-7,000 feet) from the models. At the
moment, there is a 48% chance for drier solution for Sunday
through Monday morning because of the larger influence of the GEFs
members. The European and Canadian members lean more wetter with
a few dry outliers. With that spread within the major ensembles
and a few deterministic models, there is low confidence on the
rainfall and mountain snow amounts this late weekend. Although,
there is good confidence for the region to get at least a tenth of
inch, moderate confidence of 0.25 to 0.35 in the valleys, and low
confidence as you go up towards the 0.5 inch mark on the ruler.
Higher snowfall amounts expected towards the Whites (3 to 6
inches) with Mt Graham seeing 2 to 5 inches and Mt Lemmon 1 to 3
inches. Behind the system, cooler temperatures will move in on
Monday night. Chances for freezing temperatures spreading towards
Nogales (25%), Rio Rico (83%), close to Green Valley (35%),
Safford (73%) and within the Gila River Valley, and as well as in
the valleys of Cochise County. Cold temperatures for the rest of
the region come Tuesday.

Dry conditions expected through the mid week. Ensembles project
another weather system impacting the region by late Wednesday
night through Friday. This will be another chance for showers
(very low rainfall amounts), breezes, and cooler temperatures. A
cool start to November.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 03/00Z.
FEW-SCT cirrus level clouds AOA 20k ft AGL through the end of
valid period. Westerly to southerly winds at 5 to 10 kts with
a strong gust through 02/04Z. In the overnight period, light and
terrain driven winds mainly less than 10 kts. After 02/18Z,
southwesterly winds of 8 to 12 kts with gusts up to 25 kts until
the end of the forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weather system will approach later on Saturday
to bring southwesterly breezes across the region. Chances for rain
showers and mountain snow will increase late Saturday night and
becoming widespread on Sunday to early Monday morning. Cooler
temperatures will follow with this weather system. Drier
conditions return Tuesday and Wednesday with another weather
system approaching later in the week.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Strongman

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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion