Frogville´s Weather Service

Updated:  02-Oct-2026 3:01pm 
  Clear Temperature: 88.1°F   -0.2°F/hr Humidity: 29%  Dew Point: 51.8°F Wind: ESE  6.5 mph Gust: 3.0 mph Barometer: 29.784 inHg  Falling slowly Rain Today: 0.00 in UV Index: 3.7   Medium 

114
FXUS65 KTWC 022055
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
155 PM MST Fri Oct 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy to windy east winds expected across much of southeastern
Arizona through Monday. Temperatures through this period will be
near to just below normal, with some warming by the middle of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

West coast ridging and a stalled upper level circulation over
southern New Mexico will continue to drive a tightened surface
pressure gradient and easterly winds across southeastern Arizona
through Monday. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common with
stronger winds on high terrain ridges exposed to east winds.
Though the upper low begins to nudge east out of New Mexico on
Sunday with the western ridge moving over the Four Corners, flow
aloft will remain tight and Sunday`s winds may be the strongest
in the period. Current guidance shows wind gusts exceeding 40
mph possible on Sunday, especially in the Gila River valley in
Graham county and southern Cochise county. Temperatures into
early next week will remain near to just below normal, with warm
mornings as increased winds ward off normal radiational
cooling.

The building of the ridge next week will warm temperatures to
near or just above normal by the middle of the week with
another wave potentially bringing increased winds again late in
the week. The forecast remains dry at this time, though
southeastern Arizona may be on the periphery of a moisture feed
from Hurricane Rachel next week. Current hurricane ensembles
take the track too far to the west to worry about any notable
impacts or even precipitation chances at this time, but a
modest rise in precipitable water bringing cloud build-ups or a
very slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm over high terrain
can`t be ruled out early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 04/00Z.

SCT-BKN 5k-8k ft ceilings near and east of KFHU-KSAD through
03/03Z, otherwise mainly SKC. East surface winds will continue
through the TAF period with wind speeds 16-23 kts and gusts
25-35 kts. A slight decrease in wind speeds possible after
03/06Z with an increase again after 03/14Z. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated easterly winds expected to continue through Monday
across much of southeastern Arizona. Sustained winds of 15-25
mph with gusts of 25-35 mph likely, with ridge tops exposed to
easterly flow seeing 40-50 mph gusts at times. Stronger winds in
eastern areas such as Graham and Cochise counties possible on
Sunday. Minimum relative humidity values will remain 30-40
percent in lower elevations and above 50 percent in high
elevation terrain. Some drying possible by mid-week next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Edwards
AVIATION...Edwards
FIRE WEATHER...Edwards

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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion