Frogville´s Weather Service

Updated:  11-May-2026 8:15am 
  Clear Temperature: 83.4°F   +5.9°F/hr Humidity: 15% Dew Point: 30.9°F Wind: S  3.8 mph Gust: 2.0 mph Barometer: 29.840 inHg  Steady Rain Today: 0.00 in UV Index: 2.2   Low 

500
FXUS65 KTWC 110806
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
107 AM MST Mon May 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures will continue through Tuesday, with
high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. High temperatures
will then lower several degrees mid to late week, but still remain
above normal. Gusty easterly winds expected this morning. Otherwise,
enough moisture aloft for some cloud build-ups today through
Wednesday mainly from Tucson south and eastward and a slight chance (10
percent) of virga or dry thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest WV imagery shows ridging aloft focused over
Arizona which is resulting in hot temperatures. As the ridge remains
over our area today, then nudging east Tuesday, temperatures will
peak at around 10 to 15 degrees above normal before some modest
cooling moves in later in the week.

Surface/low level easterly winds are developing this morning from
Tucson eastward as high pressure builds down the front range of the
Rockies. This will result in gusty winds this morning, peaking from
mid to late morning with gusts as high as 25 to 35 mph in the
locales most prone to easterly winds. These winds will quickly taper
off this afternoon as the pressure gradient diminishes. Meanwhile,
some modest moisture increase will start today south and east of
Tucson and result in some cloud build-ups, especially over the
higher terrain and Sky Islands. Latest HREF/CAMs indicate slight
chances (~10 percent) for some virga or even a dry lightning strike
or two this afternoon for these areas and if that were to occur,
then we`d see some additional gustiness from outflows. With the
broader flow aloft becoming southerly Tuesday as the ridge axis
shift east, chances are slightly better (but still low in the 10 to
20 percent range) for some virga or dry thunderstorms from Tucson
eastward. As the flow becomes more southwesterly aloft Wednesday,
leftover moisture will get shunted towards the NM border where
slight chances will continue for virga/dry thunderstorms.

With west to southwest flow Thursday and into this weekend, expect
dry conditions to prevail. During this period, some afternoon
breezes are expected which is typical this time of year as any
weather systems pass to our north.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 12/12Z.
Clear skies/SKC conditions through 11/19Z, then SCT clouds at 12k-
15k ft AGL to the south and east of KTUS through 12/04Z before
becoming SKC again through the end of the valid period. There is a
slight chance (10 percent) for some virga/dry thunderstorms mainly
over the higher terrain south and east of KTUS this afternoon but
this is unlikely to impact terminals. SFC winds early this morning
becoming ELY/SELY at 10-15 kts and gusts to 20-25 kts, gradually
diminishing aft 11/19Z through the afternoon hours with light and
variable winds returning area-wide aft 12/03Z. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures through Tuesday will be 10-15
degrees above normal. High temperatures will then lower several
degrees mid to late week, but still remain above normal. Min
relative humidity values through the end of the week will generally
be in the 6-14 percent range in the valleys and 10-20 percent in the
mountains. Breezy east-southeast winds of 10-20 mph and gusts to
around 30 mph are expected this morning. Otherwise, 20-foot winds
through Wednesday will be 15 mph or less, with typical afternoon and
early evening gusts to around 25 mph due to strong surface heating.
Elevated southwest-west winds return Thursday and Friday. Some mid
level moisture will move in today through Wednesday, resulting in
some cloud build-ups and slight chances (5-15 percent) of dry
thunderstorms and/or gusty outflow winds mainly south and east of
Tucson.

&&

.CLIMATE...Near record highs on Monday May 11

Date                         May 11
                          Fcst Rcd/Year
Tucson Intl Airport       102  105/1996
Ajo                       107  107/1934
Organ Pipe Cactus         107  109/1996
Picacho Peak              101  108/1996

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion