Frogville´s Weather Service

Updated:  13-May-2025 3:10am 
  Clear Temperature: 78.3°F   +1.2°F/hr Humidity: 19% Dew Point: 32.6°F Wind: SW  1.2 mph Gust: 1.0 mph Barometer: 29.709 inHg  Steady Rain Today: 0.00 in UV Index: 0.0  None

894
FXUS65 KTWC 131001
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
301 AM MST Tue May 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures for the next week will generally be
below normal for mid-May. A storm system moving to our north
across the Great Basin will result in breezy to windy southwest to
west winds today through Wednesday. Less wind on Thursday and
Friday and then a return to breezy conditions over the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning showed considerable
mainly highs clouds blowing off the Baja mountains and spreading
over the area under SW flow aloft. An upper level trof extending
from WA south into cntrl CA will continue to move east across the
intermountain west through Wednesday, bringing gust SW winds to
the area today and Wednesday with the strongest winds occuring
today.

The main weather concerns for SE Arizona through Wednesday will
be wind speeds and critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect for the entire area today and for the far
eastern areas on Wednesday. See fire weather section below for
further details. A Wind Advisory is in effect today for mainly
Cochise county and a Blowing Dust Advisory has been issued for
today for the eastern sections of Cochise county.

Thursday and Friday: Less wind with baggy trofiness lingering
over the area.

This weekend: Winds crank up again as another Pacific upper level
trof moves into the western CONUS. Areas of near critical to
critical fire weather conditions are possible both days.

Temperatures will be on a roller coaster ride over the next week
and mostly below normal.
Today: Near to above normal from Tucson E. Below normal W Tucson.
Wednesday: 4 to 10 degrees below normal.
Thursday: 2 to 6 degrees below normal.
Friday: Near normal to 4 degrees below normal.
Saturday: 4 to 10 degrees below normal.
Sunday: 6 to 15 degrees below normal.
Monday: 10 to 20 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 14/12Z.
BKN-SCT clouds AOA 15k ft AGL for much of the valid pd. SWLY SFC
wind less than 12 kts at most locations between thru 13/15Z then
incrg SWLY SFC wind at 22-30 kts and gusts to 35-45 kts aft
thru 14/02Z with the strongest SFC wind being SE of KTUS in the
vcnty of KDUG and KALK. SFC winds diminishing to less than 12 kts
after 14/02z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A storm system will move across the Great Basin,
bringing strong and gusty southwest to west winds into Wednesday.
This will result in critical fire weather conditions area wide
today and across far eastern areas Wednesday afternoon The
strongest winds will occur on today, with sustained 20-foot winds
of 20 to 30 mph and gusts to around 45 mph, locally higher to 55
mph in the mountains. A Red Flag Warning is in effect today from
10 am to 8 pm MST for all fire weather zones across southeast
Arizona (150, 151, 152, 153 and 154). A Fire Weather Watch for
Wednesday from 10 am to 7 pm MST was upgraded to Red Flag Warning
for most of Fire Weather Zone 152 and eastern portions of Fire
Weather Zone 151 and 154.

Otherwise, above normal high temperatures today will lower to 4-7
degrees below normal Wednesday. Temperatures rebound to within a
couple of degrees of normal late in the week and over the weekend.
Typical afternoon breezes Thursday and Friday for much of southeast
Arizona, with breezy conditions persisting across eastern areas.
Increasing wind speeds are expected over the upcoming weekend as
another storm system moves to our north. Near critical to critical
fire weather conditions are expected both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
  evening for AZZ150>154.

 Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening
  for AZZ507-508-512-513.

 Blowing Dust Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MST this evening
  for AZZ508.

 Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Wednesday for
  AZZ151-152-154.

&&

$$

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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion