FXUS65 KTWC 170955

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
255 AM MST Thu Oct 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Our above average warmth will drop several degrees by
this weekend as an upper level trough pushes through the region
just north of us. Another ridge of high pressure will bring
another warming trend by the middle of next week.


.DISCUSSION...The ridge that brought temperatures 7-9 degrees
above average has shifted east of the area, however lower
atmosphere and surface temperatures will be similar to yesterday
before the influence from falling heights and modest cool air
advection is felt in lower levels.

A weak impulse coming in from the eastern Pacific is being drawn
into the base of the trough near the west coast. As that pushes
across our area later today and tonight, it might have just enough
moisture for a few light showers near the far eastern mountains
(generally near the New Mexico border).

A broader trough through the region will help push temperatures
below average Monday before the eastern flank of a rather strong
ridge near the west coast pushes temperatures back to several
degrees above average by the middle of next week. The second half
of the month is still looking rather uneventful with temperatures
bouncing between near and above seasonal averages. The dominant
eastern Pacific ridge will keep us high and dry while the more
amplified flow keeps the rest of the CONUS busy.


.AVIATION...Valid through 18/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 9k-12k ft MSL. SFC wind generally less than 10
kts thru 17/16Z. Aft 17/16Z, SWLY/WLY SFC wind at 10-15 kts and
gusts to 15-22 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Except for a slight chance of showers along the New
Mexico state line late this afternoon and evening, dry conditions
are expected the next 7 days. Elevated easterly winds have
diminished, with southwest to west winds at 15 mph or less
returning continuing through the weekend. Daytime relative
humidity values will lower over the weekend into next week, with
readings in the upper single digits to mid teens.





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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion