Frogville´s Weather Service

Updated:  27-Apr-2024 5:10am 
  Clear Temperature: 58.3°F   -1.2°F/hr Humidity: 54% Dew Point: 41.7°F Wind: SSW  1.5 mph Gust: 2.0 mph Barometer: 29.724 inHg  Steady Rain Today: 0.00 in UV Index: 0.0  None

000
FXUS65 KTWC 270947
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
247 AM MST Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Cooler temperatures today with afternoon breeziness is expected as
a weather system continues to cross the region. There will be a
chance of showers and thunderstorms north of Safford through the
White Mountains this afternoon and evening. A warming trend is
expected to begin Sunday with temperatures rising above normal by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A deep upper level trough will continue to slowly push east today,
with the center crossing the Four Corners by mid-day. A modest
moisture profile along with cooler temperatures aloft is observed
towards the center of the low, meaning weak instability should
produce isolated shower and thunderstorm activity in the vicinity
of the White Mountains today. Better chances will be further north
but precipitation probabilities range from 20 to 35 percent in
the northern areas of Graham and Greenlee counties. Today will be
less windy, but still breezy thanks to a lingering pressure
gradient and unidirectional flow through the mid-levels. With the
trough axis centered aloft, cooler surface temperatures are
expected today with highs around 8 to 12 degrees below normal
forecast.

As the upper level trough exits east by Sunday, highs will rise
about 6 to 8 degrees from today. Then a rapid increase in mid-
level heights will bring a quick warm-up early next week with
highs back to around 5 to 10 degrees above average by Tuesday.
Ensembles continue to favor western CONUS troughing late next
week, however ensemble 500mb height trends keep southern Arizona
on the warmer and drier side.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 28/12Z.

FEW-SCT clouds at 8k-11k ft. A few showers and thunderstorms
possible near and north of KSAD this afternoon and evening. Winds
increase and turn west to northwesterly after 16Z with gusts of 15
to 25 kts, then diminish after 28/04Z. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Winds will be breezy this afternoon, though lighter than Friday
and below critical levels. Temperatures will also be around 8
degrees cooler than yesterday. With the cooler temperatures
minimum relative humidity will be a bit higher across the board,
with the driest spots falling to around 15 percent in
southeastern Cochise and areas of central to western Pima county.
There will be a chance of showers north of Safford this
afternoon, which may produce a few lightning strikes. Temperatures
quickly warm up by early next week. Minimum relative humidity
values in the valleys drop from the 10 to 15 percent range Sunday
to the single digits next week while values in the mountains lower
from 15 to 30 percent Sunday to 12 to 20 percent next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion