FXUS65 KTWC 232201

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
301 PM MST Sat Feb 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather is expected through next week with warmer
temperatures returning to Arizona. High temperatures will climb to
near normal Monday then push above normal for the remainder of the


.DISCUSSION...Temperatures are struggling to climb thanks to the
unseasonably cold air mass over the region and in some areas snow
cover. Satellite imagery was capturing the low elevation snow melt
rather nicely while at the higher elevations the deep snow pack
remained. It will be another rather cold night tonight into the near
dawn hours although not as cold at it was this morning. With areas of
snow melt water flowing across streets this evening, there is
potential for local ice on the roadways late tonight into early
Sunday mainly east of Tucson as temperatures drop below freezing.

Sunday we will have some high cloudiness around thanks to a weak
upper level short wave passing across southern AZ. Afternoon high
temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer than today, but even
with that, remaining 5-10 degrees cooler than normal.

Monday through the remainder of the work week is expected to remain
dry under slightly ridging westerly flow aloft. Systems moving
through the flow to our north will push some high clouds overhead
from time to time, however the bigger news will be the warmer
temperatures. Tuesday onward temperatures will be running several
degrees warmer than normal which means mid 70s in the lower deserts
(Tucson westward) and 60s to lower 70s higher valleys to the east.


.AVIATION...Valid through 25/00Z.
FEW clouds 4-6k ft NE of Tucson until 24/02Z then otherwise clear.
After 24/12z SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft spreading east across southern
AZ and remaining through the day. Surface wind variable in direction
under 10 kts this evening becoming easterly 5-15 kt late tonight
through Sunday with the strongest winds near KSAD and KTUS. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...No fire weather concerns through the workweek. Dry
weather into next Saturday with steadily warming temperatures,
reaching warmer than normal levels by Tuesday with seasonable
humidity levels. Winds will be light and diurnal except for southeast
winds 10 to 15 mph in the Gila valley Sunday and gusty NW winds next
Thursday and Friday afternoons.




Fire Weather...Cerniglia

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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion