FXUS65 KTWC 051026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
326 AM MST Fri Jun 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Expect another hot day. A passing weather system will
bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly
north to east of Tucson today and later tonight. Dry conditions
with temperatures trending a few degrees below normal will prevail
this weekend through the middle portions of next week.


.DISCUSSION...One more hot day for most of southeast Arizona as no
changes were made to the Excessive Heat Warning in effect until
8pm tonight.

A storm system will pass through the region bringing isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly east of Tucson, this
afternoon and evening. Some of the high resolution guidance
suggests convection may persist into the early morning hours of
Saturday, before finally exiting the region later Saturday
morning. The system will also bring gusty winds today and
Saturday, followed by a cooler weather regime over the weekend
into next week.

After several nice days from Saturday through Tuesday, high
pressure is once again expected to build back into the region.
This will likely allow temperatures to rise into the 100 to 108
range for many lower deserts by next Thursday and Friday. There
could be some moisture that sneaks into far eastern Arizona these
same days, however confidence is low at this time.


.AVIATION...Valid through 06/12Z.
SCT-BKN clouds 12-15k ft MSL and SCT-BKN 20-25k ft MSL. Isold
-TSRA will be possible mainly east of KTUS and KOLS this afternoon
through tonight. Main threats with any storm will be gusty outflow
winds and lightning. Otherwise, surface wind variable in direction
under 10 kts becoming southwest at 12-18 kts with gusts to 25 kts
this afternoon. Slightly stronger winds far western Pima county.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly north to
east of Tucson later today through tonight. Strong and erratic winds
are possible with any thunderstorm and any rains will be on the
light side. Gusty southwest wind expected this afternoon with local
and brief critical fire weather conditions possible far western zone
150 (west of Sells) where winds should be the strongest. Not enough
area or duration expected at this time for a red flag warning.

Otherwise, dry conditions into next Thursday with cooler than normal
temperatures Saturday through Tuesday. Some elevated/gusty southwest
to west winds will occur during the afternoons Saturday into Monday.
Saturday the winds may be strong enough for local and brief critical
fire weather conditions along the New Mexico border.  Also some
thunderstorms are possible again far eastern areas late next week.


Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ504-



Fire Weather....Cerniglia

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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion