000
FXUS65 KTWC 242102
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
202 PM MST Fri Jun 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A good monsoon flow pattern will remain over the
southwest through next week maintaining plenty of moisture over the
area. This will result in daily rounds of afternoon and some
nighttime showers and thunderstorms. The showers and storms will
have a different character and affect different areas each day. With
the abundant moisture, afternoon high temperatures will be near or a
bit cooler than average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Convection a little slower to get going this afternoon
but it is stirring at this time across the forecast area. It should
pick up further and continue through the evening before winding down
overnight. The PW is not that great, however storm motion is rather
slow so locally heavy rains are a possibility, especially any
convection that becomes somewhat terrain locked. DCAPE is rather high
from Tucson west and north so storms in that area will have the
potential to produce strong outflow winds this afternoon.

For Saturday, the central and eastern parts of the forecast area will
dry out a bit from today which will make things a bit more
challenging for convection. The atmosphere will be mixed through a
deep layer which will help but it is likely to be a mostly terrain
driven day. That is until one of the storms develops in the high
DCAPE area and kicks out a decent outflow. It will be interesting to
see how much develops given the marginal conditions.

Sunday into Monday a passing easterly wave will enhance the moisture
over the area and provide some focus. As a result we should see an
upswing in thunderstorm activity one or both of those days depending
on the timing of that passing wave.

Beyond that we may end up with a low grade monsoon day or two before
activity looks to ramp up again later next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 26/00Z.
FEW-SCT 6-10kft with SCT locally BKN 15-18k ft. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA
with ISOLD CIGS 4-6k ft into the evening hours with brief and local
MVFR conditions possible. Erratic wind gusts in excess of 45 kts
possible with storms and outflows, mainly west and north of KTUS.
Otherwise, variable SFC winds to 15 kts into the evening then light
and variable overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A good monsoon flow pattern will remain over the
southwest through next week maintaining plenty of moisture over the
area. This will result in daily rounds of afternoon and some
nighttime showers and thunderstorms. The showers and storms will
likely have a different character and affect different areas each
day. With the abundant moisture, afternoon high temperatures will be
near or a bit cooler than average.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public...Cerniglia
Aviation...Cerniglia
Fire Weather....Cerniglia

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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion