000
FXUS65 KTWC 192122
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
222 PM MST Fri Oct 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures continue to warm into the start of the
weekend, when showers arrive as a trough of low pressure slowly
moves across the area. Expect gusty east winds at times, especially
on Saturday, with showers remaining into the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak upper low was taking shape off the California
coast today as advertised by the models the past several days. A
slight increase in low-level moisture was suggested by surface dew
point temperatures remaining steady or increasing a few degrees with
daytime mixing. Satellite imagery was also depicting a decent amount
of cumulus clouds forming early this afternoon. That said, it
appeared that moisture was already starting to increase in advance
of this developing upper low off the coast. Models showed this low
lifting northward along the coast and then tracking inland through
northern/central California on Sunday. Most of the models have
backed off on the timing of precipitation for tomorrow with more of
a focus on Sunday into Monday as the upper low moves through the
Great Basin region late Sunday and Monday. Thereafter, most of the
shower activity should be confined to eastern sections of the state
Tuesday before the system passes east of the region. As far as high
temperatures, readings will peak Saturday followed by a slight
cooling Sunday into Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 21/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds 3-8k ft with occasional BKN-OVC clouds at 3k-6k ft
AGL from KSAD-KDUG line eastward. Surface wind generally easterly 5-
12 kts through the overnight hours. Starting early Saturday morning
through the afternoon easterly winds strengthen to 10-20 kts with
gusts to 30 kts. The highest speeds will be at KTUS and KDUG.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions today except for a slight
chance of showers mainly across the White Mountains. Then there is a
better chance of showers and thunderstorms across much of southeast
Arizona this weekend. A chance of showers continues Monday into
Tuesday mainly east of Tucson, then a slight chance of showers in
the White Mountains Wednesday. Expect gusty east to southeast winds
at times through this weekend, with the strongest winds occurring
Saturday. Thereafter, 20-foot winds generally terrain driven under
15 mph through the end of next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion