000
FXUS65 KTWC 241627
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
925 AM MST Mon Jun 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures today back around normal for late
June then gradually getting hotter this week as high pressure
builds over the region. Expect dry weather to continue through
Thursday. Increasing mid level moisture will then move into
eastern areas late in the work week and next weekend, resulting
in a slight chance of high based showers and thunderstorms mainly
along the New Mexico border and White Mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The forecast looked in good shape in the short-
term with plenty of sunshine today. Please refer to the previous
discussion for more details.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/18Z.
Mainly clear skies aside from a few afternoon cumulus clouds near
the higher terrain, with bases around 12-15k ft MSL. Light and
variable SFC wind except WLY 6-11 kts gusting to 20 kts this
afternoon. Light wind after 25/06Z. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected across most of southeast
Arizona this upcoming week. However, moisture will be increasing
over the far eastern portion of the state from Friday into the
weekend. This allows for the chance of thunderstorm development
along the New Mexico/Arizona border region each afternoon. Winds
will generally be out of the west to southwest at 15 mph or less
with some afternoon gustiness due to strong solar heating. Haines 6
conditions are forecast east of Benson this afternoon and
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Another clear night across southeast Arizona
under westerly flow aloft. Main themes for this week will be
gradually hotter high temperatures as the week progresses, thanks to
building high pressure aloft from the southeast, and moisture
creeping in from the south and east late in the week into next
weekend across far eastern areas. This will bring a slight chance of
afternoon/early evening high based thunderstorms/showers mainly
along/near the AZ/NM border Friday into the weekend.

Looking into next week, the GFS and ECMWF have the upper high
centered near the four corners region with an easterly wave moving
across Mexico. Starting to get the M look.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion