FXUS65 KTWC 170922

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
222 AM MST Sun Oct 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...We`ll see cooler temperatures and some locally breezy
conditions to start the work week as a system brushes by to our
north. High pressure will bring a strong warming trend the
second half of the week, with continued dry conditions.


.DISCUSSION...Not much happening on the weather scene for
southeast Arizona this week. A significant weakness in the flow is
splitting into the large scale mean ridge position, and will brush
by our area well north of us. No rain this far south, but we
should manage some breezes and a decent cooling trend Monday and

Some flow reconsolidation upstream and downstream will amplify the
ridge again the second half of the week with temperatures climbing
back to several degrees above average by Thursday or Friday.

A pattern change suggested by ensembles for the last week of the
month may get things going in much of the west, but may not be
enough for this far south other than additional cold air
advection (at least not until the last couple of days of October).
The tropics aren`t quite done yet but there`s not much chance of
anything getting this far north at this point.


.AVIATION...Valid through 18/12Z.
FEW to perhaps SCT clouds AOA 15k ft AGL increasing this afternoon.
These high level clouds will remain at times through Monday morning,
before SKC returns. SFC winds will be out of the SW this afternoon
between 7-14 kts with the occasional gusts to near 20 kts. Expect
slightly stronger sfc winds on Monday afternoon from the southwest.
Aviation not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A quiet and dry period of weather is expected into
the end of next week, with warm temperatures. 20-foot winds will
generally be less than 15 kts. Winds return out of the southwest
this afternoon and remain from that general direction into the week.
Expect seasonal humidity levels in the teens to lower 20s for
afternoon Min RHs and good overnight recoveries (generally 40-60%).





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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion