FXUS65 KTWC 042044

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
144 PM MST Mon Dec 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures warmup this week with highs running 7 to
13 degrees above normal Tuesday through Thursday. Then a cool
down Friday into the weekend to almost back to normal.


.DISCUSSION...Ridging is in place over the western portion of the
U.S. leading to temperatures 2-6 degrees warmer than this time
yesterday. The ridge becomes even stronger over the next couple
days with the warmup continuing. Highs will be 7-13 degrees above
normal through Thursday. The latest NBM gives the Tucson airport
a 22 percent chance hit 80 Tuesday and a 34 percent chance on
Wednesday. Probabilities drop to 10 percent Thursday as a pattern
shift begins to take place. Ensembles show the ridge moving off
to the east and 500 heights flattening out before a trough moves
into the Pacific Northwest. Friday the trough dives south and
moves through just north of the Four Corners region then into the
southern Plains. Still some uncertainty with how far south it
travels. However for southeast Arizona the only weather changes
will be breezy winds Friday and a small cool down Friday into the
weekend. Rain chances will stay well to the north. In the wake of
the trough it looks like another ridge begins to move in.


.AVIATION...Valid through 06/00Z.
SCT-BKN cirrus clouds AOA 20k ft MSL thru much of valid pd. SFC
winds remain generally under 12 kts and follow diurnal trends.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A gradual warming trend begins this week with
temperatures roughly 7 to 13 degrees above normal. Temperatures
decrease to just above normal to around normal Friday into the
weekend as a weather system moves through to the north. Winds
remain generally light, with afternoon gustiness each afternoon.
Friday winds will be elevated as the weather system moves through.
A dry period begins and minimum RH values range from 14-25% in the
valleys and 25-40% in the mountains.




Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion