FXUS65 KTWC 142313

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
413 PM MST Mon Jun 14 2021



.SYNOPSIS...A strong ridge of high pressure will result in
excessive heat through much of the week. This high pressure
will become centered over the four corners region by the middle of
the week, allowing mid-level moisture to increase across the area
with the prospects of isolated mainly dry thunderstorms.


.DISCUSSION...The main story of this week is the excessive
and dangerous heat across the region. See climate section below for
more information. Current IR/WV satellite imagery shows a broad
(very strong) mid/upper level high centered near the AZ/NM border.
As the high continues to shift northward, the flow aloft is becoming
easterly. Moisture levels are still fairly low with PWAT values of
0.50" to 0.75", though it ramps up quite quickly south across Sonora
to the 1" to 1.25" range. A few build-ups are being observed to the
south and east of Tucson, however given the lack of moisture today
there won`t be more than a few mainly dry thunderstorms with gusty
and erratic outflow winds. The best chance of this activity will be
in Cochise and Santa Cruz Counties. Any convection should diminish
after sunset.

The flow pattern will remain favorable on Tuesday with easterly mid
level flow. Moisture will increase especially from Tucson westward
with PWAT values increasing to around 0.75" to 1.00". Meanwhile,
some drier air will advect into the far southeast portions of the
state. CAMs are in fairly good agreement with this setup as the best
chance for convection will be from western Cochise County and points
westward along with the higher terrain of northern Graham and
Greenlee Counties. Once again there will not be a lot of rainfall
from these thunderstorms with gusty winds and blowing dust a
possible threat as well.

During the second half of the week, a fairly similar flow will
persist with just enough moisture for some isolated (mainly dry)
thunderstorms with the best chances across the higher terrain in the
White Mountains. The high will likely shift a bit southward this
weekend and weaken slightly allowing a reduction of thunderstorm
chances along with slightly cooler temperatures by Sunday and


.AVIATION...Valid through 16/00Z.
SKC-FEW clouds above 18k ft MSL. Locally BKN clouds 15-18k ft MSL
east to south of KTUS with ISOLD TS/-SHRA. After 15/03z debris
clouds around 14-18k ft MSL. West to northwest winds 10-15 kts
gusting to 25 kts will diminish south below 10 kts after 15/05z.
Outflow gusts up to 35 kts possible near any TS than develop SE of
KTUS. Minor reduction in visibility due to wildfire smoke. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Near record heat will continue each day for this
week. Humidities will increase slightly throughout the week due to a
shift in the weather pattern that attempts to usher in some early
monsoon moisture. A slight chance for thunderstorms today will
persist each afternoon/evening through the remainder of the
forecast. Rainfall amounts should be on the lighter side due to the
overall dryness of the atmosphere, increasing the chances for dry
thunderstorms and gusty outflows. Winds will otherwise follow
typical diurnal trends, with afternoon gustiness due to heating.


.CLIMATE...Near record or record high temperatures through much of
the week.

List of record or near record high temperatures for the next few

DATE                      Today           Jun 15           Jun 16
                       FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT    112 111/1993     113 110/1896     113 109/1988
AJO                    112 112/1940     112 112/2007     113 112/1916
KITT PEAK               96  90/2006      95  90/2002      96  94/1974
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS      110 111/1987     111 113/1993     111 110/1993
PICACHO PEAK           114 111/2000     115 110/2000     115 111/2000
SAFFORD AG STATION     115 106/2006     111 108/2002     111 105/2002
SIERRA VISTA FD        106 101/1974     103 100/2017     103 103/2017
TOMBSTONE              107 106/1993     105 105/1916     104 105/1985
WILLCOX                107 107/2018     104 105/1916     104 105/1948


Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Saturday for AZZ501>506-

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ507-



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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion