FXUS65 KTWC 182017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
117 PM MST Tue Jan 18 2022

Chances for rain and an isolated storm will continue through this
evening across portions of southeast Arizona. A few showers will
again be possible on Wednesday afternoon before dry weather sets
in through Friday. Temperatures will remain warm with periods of
mostly cloudy skies and afternoon breezes.


.DISCUSSION...Today through next Monday.
Current water vapor imagery is clearly showing a shortwave trough
pushing into western Arizona early this afternoon. This wave will
continue on an eastward path, exiting into New Mexico tonight. It
has already begun to trigger widespread showers across much of the
state with most activity in southeast AZ from Tucson eastward.
Development will continue to be focused in this area throughout
the afternoon before decreasing in coverage after sunset. A few
lightning strikes are not out of the question this afternoon with
meager instability in place. PWAT values range from 0.4-0.7 inches
across the area which shouldn`t amount to any notable rainfall
totals but some areas could see localized values of a few tenths
of an inch. Westerly breezes will also pick up this afternoon at
speeds of 10-20 mph gusting around 25 mph.

Behind the exiting Tuesday shortwave, another weather disturbance
will be right on its tail which will pass through the area from
the north on Wednesday. There will be enough moisture still in
place to get a few showers Wednesday afternoon east of Tucson
with highest chances over the White Mtns. Thursday and Friday look
to remain mostly dry as the region remains in between an
amplified ridge over the eastern Pacific and longwave trough
across the central and eastern United States. This weekend looks
like the next chance at some precipitation as a low dives
southward on the east side of the aforementioned ridge,
potentially closing off somewhere around AZ/NM. The Euro ensemble
remains the colder, deeper solution which is quite different from
a couple of days ago. Confidence is still low in the details on
timing and strength but in general, there will be a chance for
showers at some point this weekend along with breeziness and
cooler temps.


.AVIATION...Valid through 20/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 6k-10k ft AGL thru 19/03Z, then FEW-SCT clouds
at 8k-12k ft AGL thru the remainder of the forecast period. Chance
of -SHRA/VCSH through 19/00Z with greater chances in Cochise Co
and Santa Cruz Co. SFC wind SWLY to NWLY SFC winds at 10 kts with
gusts up to 20-25kts, then after 19/03 SFC winds are light and
variable thru the forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.


There will be a chance of showers across southeast Arizona today
and tomorrow then again over the weekend. Any precipitation will
be on the light side. Some breezy 20-foot winds will occur mainly
south and east of Tucson this afternoon, with wind speeds of
12-18 mph and some gusts to 20-30 mph. 20-foot winds will be less
than 15 mph and mainly terrain driven Wednesday through Friday,
with a return to breezy conditions this weekend. RH values will
remain above critical levels the next 7 days.





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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion