FXUS65 KTWC 220901

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
201 AM MST Wed Mar 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Areas of gusty winds will continue through much of the
day with scattered showers developing this morning. The storm causing
this weather will move our of the region Thursday. Friday through the
weekend should be dry however temperatures are expected to remain
below normal for late March.


.DISCUSSION...The storm system continues to move inland and will
gradually weaken as it moves across the western states. For today we
will maintain gusty winds across much of the area with the strongest
winds lingering across southeast areas. Showers are now just
beginning to develop over southern AZ with the expecting that they
will continue to develop and move east through the day. Basically a
few lines of scattered showers with not a lot of precipitation
expected most valley areas with a good part of Cochise county likely
not getting much of anything in the valleys. The northern Sky Islands
and the White Mountains should pick up 3/4 of an inch to about 1.5
inches with the higher amounts focused over the Whites. Snow will be
limited as the snow levels will be high through the event with just a
few inches above 7500-8000 ft over the Sky Islands and up to 10
inches across the peaks of the White mountains.

While the main impulse moves off to the east later tonight into
Thursday morning, the mean upper level trough will linger over the
area to some degree through the weekend. This is a dry pattern for us
with enhanced afternoon breezes and temperatures holding well below

A bit of ridging takes hold early next week allowing temperatures to
rebound to near or a bit above normal if current solutions are close
to accurate. But the reason for that ridging is another low pressure
system moving onto the coast the middle of next week with some
potential weather impacts for our area for the middle to the end of
next week.


.AVIATION...Valid through 23/12Z.
SCT-BKN clouds 8-12k ft MSL with local MVFR CIGS and mtn
obscurations in SCT-NRMS SHRA, mainly NW of a line from KFHU-KCFT,
with ISOLD TSRA north of KAVQ-KSAD. SHRA coverage decreasing after
23/00z. SFC winds SW 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts, diminishing to
less than 15kts after 23/00z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...The strong winds will continue today with scattered
showers developing this morning and continuing into the night with a
few potentially lingering into the morning. More typical spring
breezes are expected Friday through the weekend with cooler than
normal temperatures will lingering. The air mass will gradually
dry out resulting in Min RH levels dipping into the teens and locally
the single digits Sunday into early next week.


Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for AZZ507-508-512-



Fire Weather....Cerniglia

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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion