320
FXUS65 KTWC 231002
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
302 AM MST Sat Jun 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions continuing this weekend and during the
upcoming work week. Daytime temperatures moderating a few to several
degrees this weekend before increasing again by the middle of the
upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A dry northwesterly flow aloft will remain in place
this weekend as the storm track stays north of the region. This
northwesterly flow will result in some gusty winds today in the
Upper Gila River Valley around Safford. Daytime temperatures will
also lower a few degrees today into at least Monday. Thereafter,
lighter wind speeds can be anticipated early next week as a high
pressure ridge aloft builds over the region. This area of high
pressure will also result in temperatures rebounding to similar
readings as the past couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/12Z.
Clear skies thru 23/17Z, then a few clouds at 10k-15k ft AGL before
dissipating late this evening. SFC wind between 23/17Z and 24/04Z
swly to nwly at 8-20 kts with gusts near 30 kts. The strongest
speeds will occur in the vicinity of KSAD. Surface wind variable in
direction and less than 12 kts at other times. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected through the middle of
next week. A few afternoon and evening thunderstorms may encroach
upon far eastern and southern sections of the forecast area by next
Friday. However, forecast confidence is quite low regarding this
scenario. Some gusty southwest to northwest winds will occur this
weekend, with the strongest speeds expected across the Upper Gila
River Valley including Safford. Thereafter, 20-foot winds will
mainly be less than 15 mph with occasional afternoon gusts.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion