National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
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FXUS65 KTWC 151642
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
842 AM MST Thu Nov 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and a warming trend can be anticipated
the next few days as high pressure aloft influences our weather.
High temperatures will level off to around more seasonable readings
over the weekend into next week. A change in the weather pattern
will bring a couple of weather systems through the region the middle
of next week and again late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A cool start to the morning in some locales--Douglas
had a record low of 22--but high temperatures are expected to warm
several degrees today. Clear skies can be seen on satellite imagery
across the state. After experiencing breezy conditions for the
better part of this week, winds have decreased area wide and this
lighter regime remains through today. The atmosphere continues to be
bone dry, with the morning sounding measuring only 0.13" of
precipitable water and surface dew points are generally in the teens
to single digits. The forecast looks in good shape. Please see the
previous discussion below for details on the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/18Z.
SKC until FEW-SCT clouds above 20k ft AGL approach Friday morning.
Surfaces winds generally remain below 12 kts through the forecast
period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Easterly winds will diminish today, though some gusts up to 20 mph
are possible in a few locales this morning, particularly near gaps
in terrain and in portions of the Tucson Metro. A more typical
diurnal wind regime returns on Friday, although east winds return
briefly Monday into Tuesday. Relative humidities remain low until a
modest increase occurs starting Tuesday. This also brings a slight
chance of precipitation to the mountains and higher terrain for
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...High clouds associated with a weak disturbance
will exit southeast Arizona this morning. This will give way to
clear skies areawide by this afternoon. With a ridge of high
pressure anchored along the west coast, daytime temperatures will
warm back up to around seasonable readings today through early next
week. Less wind can also be anticipated through the weekend. The
tail end of a system tracking north of the area will brush through
the state on Sunday. This feature will bring some clouds with it and
elevate the wind speeds Sunday afternoon. Thereafter, both the GFS
and ECMWF models showed the ridge of high pressure weakening and
opening the door up for a couple weather system to pass through the
region. The first one was forecast to track through Arizona Tuesday
into Wednesday followed by another one late next week. Both systems
appeared to be limited in moisture, so will continue to maintain low
POP values in the mountains.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Howlett

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